Overview

Bush’s election victory clearly caused disquiet to both Koreas. Kim Dae-jung has put a brave face on it, by claiming that the US will continue to support his ‘sunshine’ policy, it is widely expected that the current review of American policy towards the DPRK will lead to a tougher line that will threaten the gains of the last year or so. President Kim has pushed for an early meeting with Bush, in March, to press his case. Pyongyang was disappointed by the failure of Clinton to take up the invitation to visit, and presumably sign some sort of normalization agreement, before he left office. Reaction to the Bush administration has so far been muted. Even Powell’s insulting references to Kim Jong Il have not provoked, so far, the fulmination we might have seen in the past; the olive branch is still offered. The response to the post-election situation has been adroit and shows Kim Jong Il’s growing confidence. Firstly, the ‘diplomatic offensive’, supported from the sidelines by ROK, has continued. Britain, Belgium, Canada, the Netherlands, Brazil, Germany and NZ have all established diplomatic relations recently, or are on the verge of doing so. Secondly, Chairman Kim’s New Year call for ‘new thinking’, followed by his visit to China, sent strong signals. His meeting with Jiang Zemin in Beijing reminded us that the DPRK has a powerful friend with a strong interest in a peaceful and independent Korean peninsula. His very busy tour of Shanghai with Zhu Rongji (26 visits in three days) suggested that he was anxious to push ahead with economic reform and opening if external conditions were conducive, and that depended on the United States. Thirdly, his projected visits to Moscow and Seoul in the first part of this year, are another indication of a more proactive diplomacy. It is unlikely that negotiations with Japan will show much progress under Mori, but who knows what might happen under a new government in Tokyo?

The food situation is getting bleaker, with last year’s harvest being serious damaged by typhoons on top of the prevailing shortage of fertiliser, electricity and other industrial inputs.

The overall situation is very much a mixed picture, with potent reasons for both optimism and pessimism. Much depends on the new American Administration.

A wide range of articles on these, and other, issues is on our website at

http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/

Tim Beal

US-ROK-DPRK Relations

Powell’s statement to US Senate

../.., we come to our bilateral relationship with the Republic of Korea, a land seeking a historic reconciliation, one that we support and will help facilitate.

But so long as the dictator in the north continues to field far more conventional military force than any conceivable sense of self defense would warrant, and develops missiles and unconventional weapons, we and our allies in the Pacific will remain vigilant. ../.. we will review thoroughly our relationship with the North Koreans, measuring our response by the only criterion that is meaningful - continued peace and prosperity in the South and in the region.

We believe that the reduction of tensions between the North and South is one of the keys to greater peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. The ongoing North-South dialogue is certainly a positive step in this regard. ../.. we will abide by our commitments under the Agreed Framework provided that North Korea does the same.

We are open to a continued process of engagement with the North so long as it addresses political, economic, and security concerns, is reciprocal, and does not come at the expense of our alliance relationships.

And in our review of the situation on the Peninsula, the Bush administration will be looking closely at our defense posture.

Source: prepared statement delivered to Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on January 17.

http://www.atimes.com/china/CA20Ad01.html

DPRK ready to cope with whatever stand to be taken by new U.S. administration

Foreign Ministry ../.. answer to the question put by KCNA as regards the recent provocative remark made by U.S. Secretary of State Powell against our supreme leadership. At a U.S. senate confirmation hearing held on Jan. 18 he dared make such reckless remark going against the elementary common sense as slandering our supreme leadership as "dictator of north Korea." ../..

The DPRK cannot but interpret what he said as a statement reflecting the sinister intention of big war industrial monopolies and other conservative hardliners in the U.S. to keep the U.S.-DPRK relations in the hostile and belligerent relationship forever and thus fish in troubled waters.

The DPRK is fully ready to cope with whatever stand to be taken by the new U.S. administration towards it.

The DPRK appreciates the progress so far made in the bilateral ties through negotiations with U.S. politicians of reason but has no idea of pinning any hope on those forces displeased with this process.

If the U.S. brandishes a sword at us, we will counter it with a sword and if it shows good faith, we will reciprocate it.

Source: KCNA 25 January 2001

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2001/200101/news01/25.htm

Seoul Feels Nostalgia for Clinton

Korea already seems to be feeling nostalgic about the ``good old days'' even though just a short time has passed since Bill Clinton left office, solely missing the two countries' tight alliance in their joint effort to cajole North Korea out of its Stalinist cave…/..

Appearing on a late-night television debate program on changes apparently transpiring in Pyongyang, Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn spoke of a lost opportunity, disclosing that the Clinton administration was close to a breakthrough in the resolution of the communist country's missile program during its final days. ../..

[Kim Dae-jung’s] line of rhetoric, however, might be interpreted to signal Seoul's uneasiness about President Bush, taken in the context of a pre-inauguration concern about his administration's stronger approach toward the communist state. ../..

The concern about Bush was further realized when U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell described North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as a ``dictator'' in his Senate confirmation hearing. ../..

From Seoul's point of view, Powell could turn back the South-North clock significantly. Therefore, President Kim's self-imposed mission on his trip to Washington will likely be to adjust President Bush's clock to that of eight years ago, when his father was in power…/..

At any rate, President Bush's inauguration comes at a very critical time for the South-North relationship.

First of all, the once-frosty inter-Korean relationship is warming up under the consistent ``sunshine'' policy of engagement toward Pyongyang to the point that Kim Jong-il will likely visit Seoul.

Despite many missing parts in the jigsaw of Pyongyang's future course of action, there is widespread speculation that it is in for a major shift toward a China-style open economy, following its leader's recent visit to Beijing and tour of the communist giant's industrial achievements. ../..

Seoul is looking to the other side of the Pacific for any clues as to Washington's future course of action, but so far the signs are not encouraging.

Source: Korea Times, 28 January 2001

http://www.hk.co.kr/kt_nation/200101/t200101281705014111234.htm

ROK diplomats to encourage links with DPRK

Heads of South Korea's overseas diplomatic missions ended their three-day annual conference here yesterday, pledging to step up their diplomatic support for North Korea's efforts to join the international community.

"The participants resolved to spearhead diplomatic efforts so that we can play a leading role in expanding North Korea's participation in the global community and improving relations between them and Western nations," said a Foreign Ministry spokesman.

The South Korean government has placed its foreign policy priorities for this year on establishing a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and diplomatic support for the Communist North's moves to join global organizations. ../..

Source: Korea Herald, 1 February 2001

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2001/02/01/200102010063.asp

Signs of new economic policies?

Kim Jong Il Stresses Economic Renovation with New Thinking

On Jan. 4 “Rodong Sinmun”, organ of the Workers’ Party of Korea, carried Kim Jong Il’s remarks exhorting the people to bring about radical transformations in the fields of economy, science and technology with new thinking and a refreshed mindset. These are extracts referring to economic innovation.

"21st Century Is Century of Great Change and Creation"

“Things are not what they used to be in the 1960s. So no one should follow the way people used to do things in the past. A new age ushering in the 21st century requires us to seek perfection in doing everything.”

“With the start of the new age of the 2000s, an all-round reexamination should be given to the outworn patterns and practices followed by other countries, and the whole work should be unfolded in our own way.”

“We should make constant efforts to renew the landscape to replace the one which was formed in the past, to meet the requirements of a new era.”

“At this historic time when we greet the 21st century, we should make a new innovation and revolution in the farming method, too.”

“As the 1950s gave birth to the pioneers who cleared virgin forests of the Paekdu Plateau into rich wheat and barley fields on a large scale, so the 2000s should produce the front-runners who, upholding the far-reaching initiative of our party, will bring about a revolution in potato farming so as to make a breakthrough in solving our food problem.”

“In order to boost and develop the economy in keeping with rapid changes in our time, we should be bold to provide industrial sectors with up-to-date equipment and techniques.”

“We should bring about technical modernization by boldly doing away with what needs to be abolished, instead of being shackled by ready-made ideas or hanging on to the old and outdated conceptions.”

“Ours is an era of science and technology which show startlingly rapid progress. Resting on our laurels or marking time in this regard will disable ourselves from getting over a barrier to boost the economy. Because we are in the 2000s now, we must solve all problems through a new way of thinking and by scaling a new height.”

Source: People’s Korea 27 January 2001

http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/154th_issue/2001012503.htm

N Korea steps up media campaign on Kim Jong Il's China visit

North Korea is stepping up a media campaign regarding leader Kim Jong Il's recent study tour of China, reinforcing speculation the country may be moving toward reforms and openness, South Korean officials said on Monday.

Kim returned home from a six-day trip to China on Jan. 20 that included talks with President Jiang Zemin and other top Chinese officials and an inspection tour of industrial facilities. It was his second trip to China in less than eight months.

During the trip, Kim stayed mostly in Shanghai for a tour of a number of foreign-invested facilities. Kim visited the Chinese city for the first time in 1983.

North Korean media earlier quoted Kim as saying that the Shanghai he saw for the first time in 18 years has undergone "cataclysmic changes," transforming into a major global financial and industrial hub. ../..

But on Sunday, television broadcast for the first time 40 minutes of footage showing all segments of the trip, including visits to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and a number of industrial plants in the city which practically serves as a billboard for China's market economy.

South Korean officials who watched the North Korean TV footage were surprised that Kim Jong Il's three-day itinerary in Shanghai was packed with as many as 26 events, mostly visits to financial and industrial facilities, some invested in by General Motors Corp. and NEC Co. of Japan.

The footage also showed Kim mixing with Shanghai citizens in a subway and visiting a Chinese worker's home studded with fancy furniture and modern electronic goods, including a large television set, a refrigerator and a stereo. ../..

China's Foreign Ministry quoted Kim as telling Chinese leaders that China's economic development proves that its market reform policy was "correct."

Kim also reportedly told Chinese leaders that he wants to build a city in his country modeled on Shanghai.

Kim's unreserved praise of China's market reforms immediately raised speculation that his reclusive communist country may try to imitate China and open up to the outside world.

South Korean officials said the North's stepped-up media campaign over the weekend may be part of an effort to prepare its people for a possible economic policy change toward openness. ../..

Source: Times of India 30 January 2001

http://www.timesofindia.com/today/30aspc10.htm

Food and aid situation

WFP: 2000 harvest poor

a) December marked the beginning of a very cold period in DPR Korea. The preparations for the winter, which have occupied the people since the end of the harvest, were all but over. In the more temperate provinces in the south, WFP observed some field activities, mainly relating to land development. In South Hwangae, workers were involved in land restructuring for paddy. This has been an ongoing priority to level and standardise paddy, in order to increase production and facilitate mechanisation. ../..

c) During household visits, WFP observed little fresh food available. The harvest from kitchen gardens is now consumed and the people are reliant on their "kimchi" stocks, or whatever they have preserved from the summer. These stocks include edible grasses and leaves collected from the mountains, or seaweed along the coastal areas. Many households have some stocks of leafy tops of radishes and cabbage that have been dried.

e) In mid-January, the temperatures fell to the lowest levels recorded in the last 50 years. Road networks outside the capital are impassable, and humanitarian workers have reported that the country is "at a standstill" outside the capital. This poses serious problems for population weakened by years of food shortages, with inadequate heating and difficult access to fuel wood. At the same time, the poor harvest of 2000 means that food provision through the Public Distribution System will cease by the end of January in most parts of the country, according to Government reports.

Source: World Food Programme 19 January 2001

http://www.wfp.org/ereport/2001/000119.htm - (E) DPR Korea

A lesson in North Korean diplomacy

Anthony Hovey

After 11 years of development work in Africa, I arrived in North Korea in early 1999 as the new country representative for Children's Aid Direct, one of the first NGOs to enter the country and currently the only British NGO still operating there. ../..

For diplomats we all were, like it or not, fail or succeed. As the head of a British NGO, I was perceived by the Koreans as representing my country. Building mutual trust and understanding, and give-and-take, became as important as the practicalities of administering food aid, agriculture and water supply projects.

Implementing projects required me to learn a new way of working. Gone were the days in Africa where I worked directly with the beneficiaries and travelled where I wanted. Our every action had to be negotiated with the authorities and could never be assumed. An ability (and willingness) to develop and maintain good relations with Korean officials usually meant that most problems could be discussed and solved quite openly, either formally at meetings or at one of the many informal picnics or dinners to which we were invited. Though sometimes stressful and never straightforward, this process could also be immensely enjoyable, particularly given the Koreans' great sense of humour, warmth and hospitality…/..

In many countries aid workers agonise over the issue of sustainability. Not so in North Korea, where our projects are owned and efficiently implemented by hard-working and competent local officials and school teachers. How satisfying to set up and implement projects that will not fall apart the day you leave! ../..

To judge by the new spirit of cooperation with South Korea, North Korea is eager to find solutions to its current difficulties in partnership with other countries. For the first time in many years there is now a real chance for creating lasting peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula, but the active support of Western governments will also be needed for this to succeed

Source: Guardian Weekly, 7-13 September 2000, p. 25