Pyongyang Report

Vol 3 No 5 December 2001

In this issue-

n UN Appeal: Need for environment enabling transition to rehabilitation

n Harvest up 38% but aid still required

n Seoul rebuts US claims; Pyongyang signs anti-terrorism pacts

n Afghanistan, Iraq…Next target Pyongyang?

n NZ Ambassador to DPRK; Presbyterian invitation to Pyongyang

Commentary

The Korean situation is becoming more ominous with only a few bright spots to relieve the gloom. One of those is that this year’s harvest is up 38% on last year and is the best since 1995/6. However, that still leaves the country way short of its food requirements, not to mention calamitous shortages in everything from health care to electricity. Just as bad weather is not solely to blame for the humanitarian crisis, neither is good weather solely responsible for the better harvest. Increased supplies of fertiliser (from ROK) is a major factor. If the crisis has its causes, it also has its solutions. The latest United Nations Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal, whilst giving horrifying statistics on malnutrition and deprivation stressed that the crisis would continue unless the economy is rehabilitated. There is concern that although food aid (which benefits farmers in donor countries) while not adequate is relatively easy to obtain, non-food aid and development assistance are poorly funded. Whilst mutual trust and cooperation has grown over the years there is diplomatic but forthright criticism of the DPRK government for lack of transparency and a call for ‘an enhanced quality of dialogue’. Pyongyang has found it difficult, for reasons of security, custom and pride, to comply with the accountability demands of foreign agencies. However the appeal makes it clear that the role of the agencies is to facilitate better governance by the Korean government not supplant it.

There is an urgent need to effect a ’transition from humanitarian assistance to development’ and create an ‘enabling environment for rehabilitation and development’.

Which brings us to the geo-political situation and the United States. A year ago there was a palpable sense of optimism about the prospects for peace and normalisation. The Pyongyang Summit had gone well, there had been significant, if limited, family reunions and there were extensive North-South talks on a range of issues. Cho Myong-rok had visited Washington, Madeleine Albright had visited Pyongyang and it was likely that Bill Clinton would follow. A year later things seem very different. Although there are forces in Pyongyang, Seoul and Tokyo opposed to the peace process it is clear that the main cause of the deterioration has been the Bush administration. Here again there are hawks and doves, with Secretary Powell being portrayed as the voice of calm and reason, but the overall thrust has been to freeze the peace process.

This has caused embarrassment and alarm to Kim Dae-jung who has been turning elsewhere, especially to Europe, for support. Kim Jong Il has also turned to Europe (the EU mission), to Russia and to China. The ‘diplomatic offensive’ to establish relations with countries friendly to ROK has continued – NZ being a case in point. However apart from that Pyongyang’s policy has been maladroit. In particular, the freezing of relations with Seoul, and with an embattled Kim Dae-jung, as a way pressuring Washington seems a strange miscalculation. The refusal to resume talks with the United States, whilst understandable from a cultural perspective with its calls for the United States to abandon hostility and show sincerity, is not good public relations and does nothing to assist the doves in Washington, or Seoul.

As we go to press there have been a number of reports that, after Afghanistan, and Iraq, the next target of US military attack will be the DPRK. If that were to happen it would be a terrible calamity for Koreans, in the south as well as in the north. It would have repercussions beyond the peninsula, embroiling the region, and the world, in heightened tension and perhaps war. In that case, even countries far removed from the conflict, such as NZ, would suffer economic shocks.

The ‘threat from North Korea’ is manifestly spurious but has wide currency and may be accepted by a triumphalist American public as sufficient justification for attack. This is unlikely to come about for a variety of reasons – Pyongyang is not isolated in the way that the Taliban were- but the mere talking about it will increase Pyongyang’s suspicions and fear of the United States and erode the ‘enabling environment’ that is necessary for the rehabilitation and recovery of the north Korean economy. There is talk of a proposal for US envoy for North Korea affairs, Jack Pritchard, to visit DPRK. Pyongyang should respond positively, and whilst it need have no illusions about the Bush administration, it should seek to understand better the dynamics of American (and ROK) politics and international public opinion, manipulated though that may be. It should attempt to outflank the hawks and build a coalition, as it has done at times and with some success, of those who support the rehabilitation and development of the DPRK economy and the promotion of peace and dialogue.

Tim Beal

UN Consolidated Appeal 2002

The vulnerable sectors of the population of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPR Korea) continue to suffer the cumulative effects of chronic malnutrition, a fractured economic infrastructure, inadequate food production, and a deteriorating social sector. //... A total of US$ 258,136,111 is required to enable the core humanitarian strategy to respond to the identified humanitarian needs. Key features of the humanitarian crisis [include]

A food supplies gap of more than one million metric tonnes (MTs).1 Until the Government, through commercial imports and increased domestic food production, achieves food security, only generous food-aid contributions can prevent a major famine. ..//..
The entire population of approximately 23 million people has crosscutting vulnerability caused by inadequate food availability. Poor quality of and limited access to basic health, water, sanitation, and education services compound this vulnerability
Unless there is a recovery of the country's economy this multi-faceted crisis cannot be overcome.

..//..a number of steps that should be followed by all stakeholders to assist the Government of DPR Korea create an environment for the transition from humanitarian assistance to development. ..//.. there is an urgent need for external actors to support and advocate for an enabling environment for rehabilitation and development programming, ..//.. the need for resources to allow the UN agencies to act as facilitators of positive improvements for the Government. For such change to occur, an enhanced quality of dialogue with the Government must take place.

Source: United Nations Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal for DPR Korea 2002

Harvest up 38%, Aid still required

This year’s food production in DPR Korea has shown a substantial recovery compared to last year’s reduced output, despite the impact of the spring drought on crops in earlier stages of growth.

The factors behind this strong recovery include favourable performance of rains from mid-June through August, international assistance with the provision of fertilizers, improved and timely availability of farm machinery and other inputs, intensified national endeavours including increased budgetary allocation for agriculture and a mobilization of people’s efforts…//..Despite a significant recovery in 2001, the domestic production will fall well below the minimum food needs and the country will again have to depend on substantial external food assistance for next year as its capacity to import commercially remains highly constrained…//..Relatively good and well distributed rainfall from mid-June to end-August, following the 2001 spring drought, benefited the production of 2001 main crops, substantially overcoming the potential adverse effects of the drought. Reservoirs were also replenished so that water levels in most of them, though still low, have been better than the earlier part of the year, facilitating improved irrigation. At the same time, determined to increase food crop production as much as possible, the government effectively mobilized the national and people’s efforts. The government budget for agriculture, reportedly increased by 10 percent compared to last year, translated into increased import of fertilizer, tractors, tyres, machinery spare parts and fuel. International assistance, especially in providing fertilizers, has also been extremely helpful. The farm inputs were made available to the cooperatives at appropriate times. Also, as and when necessary, people, even school children, worked and provided irrigation manually to crops and assisted with the transplanting and other vital farming activities.

These positive factors resulted in improved crop yields, resulting in a cereal harvest which has been the best since 1995/96 - up on the previous best (1998/99) by about 2 percent and on the last year’s reduced output by 38 percent.

Source: FAO/World Food Programme 26 October 2001

Seoul rebuts US claims

The Wall Street Journal (John Larkin, "SEOUL BALKS AT U.S. PUSH TO LINK NORTH TO TERROR," 12/14/01) reported that an unnamed senior ROK diplomat said that the ROK Foreign Ministry contacted the US State Department to learn whether recent remarks by US Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton on the DPRK's biological weapons program had been prompted by any new intelligence. The official stated, "We were told there was no such evidence." He added, "We don't have hard evidence that North Korea has stockpiled chemical and biological weapons." Suh Jae-jean of the government-funded Korea Research Institute for National Unification argued, "North Korea utilizes its weapons, including missiles and biological agents, for purposes of negotiation rather than real use." He added that with the PRC and Russia pushing Kim Jong-il to reconcile with the ROK, it is virtually impossible for the DPRK to take hostile actions. Satellite photographs released by the Federation of American Scientists last year showed the DPRK's main missile launch facility at Musudan as "a facility barely worthy of note, consisting of the most minimal imaginable test infrastructure." The federation said that the absence of paved roads made the site unsuitable for winter use, and no railway connections, staff housing or propellant storage depots were detected. John Pike, who wrote the federation's analysis, argued, "My view continues to be that North Korea's missile program has essentially been a diplomatic negotiating chip. It was basically a way for the North Koreans to engage the U.S. after the collapse of the Soviet Union."

Source: Nautilus Institute, NAPSnet Daily Report 14 December 2001

No Links Between Taliban and NK

Mullah Mohammed Haksar former deputy interior minister of Afghanistan revealed that North Korea has whatsoever nothing to do with Taliban administration nor al-Quaida terrorist group led by Osama bin Laden last Saturday.

Mr. Haksar..//.. said in his interview with Yonhap news press conference that during his term serving as the interior minister and chief of intelligence department there was no sign of any link between Taliban and North Korea and not a single mention was there in al-Quaida's connection with Pyongyang

Source: JoongAng Ilbo 29 November 2001

NK Allows IAEA Inspection of Key Nuclear Institute

North Korea has allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect an isotope production laboratory in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang…//..

Despite worsening relations with the United States, the North has been showing friendly gestures in hopes of improving bilateral ties, signing, for instance, two international anti-terror treaties meant to block the flow of money to terror-sponsoring organizations.

The North's allowance of the inspections was also seen as an expression of willingness to honor the spirit of the 1994 Agreed Framework between Pyongyang and Washington.

Source: Korea Times 2 December 2001

Is Kim Readjusting Foreign Policy?

BUDAPEST, Hungary _ President Kim Dae-jung said two things that caught the attention of some observers during the final stage of his 11-day, four- nation European tour at the Hyatt Hotel here on Sunday. ..//.., President Kim declared an ``all-out era of cooperation with Europe,'' pointing out that Korea has been overly dependent on the United States in economic terms.

Touching on the stalled South-North Korea relations, Kim said, ``We have to count on ourselves to resolve our own problems.'' He made this statement when asked if the United States is standing in the way of inter-Korean relations.

Putting these statements in the same context, some may wonder whether Kim is trying to readjust the U.S.-centered foreign policy that has been advocated not only by Kim but also by his predecessors. ..//.. Kim's ``sunshine'' policy of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation remains stuck in the doldrums, as the result of President Bush's hard-line policy toward Pyongyang.

Source: Korea Times 10 December 2001

North willing to sign 5 more anti-terror pacts

North Korea recently told visiting European diplomats that it intends to join five more international anti-terrorism conventions, Seoul officials said yesterday. On Nov. 12, the Pyongyang government signed two U.N. anti-terrorism treaties, one on terrorist funding and the other on the taking of hostages. ..//..North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun and Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su-hon said that there is no reason why Pyongyang won't join the five treaties since North Korea is not a state sponsoring terrorism, the Swedish official was quoted as reporting. ..//.."We see the North's willingness to join the treaties as a constructive and positive step," Liunggren was quoted as saying. ..//..North Korea has already joined seven of 12 U.N. international conventions on terrorism. South Korea subscribes to eight of such conventions and plans to sign the remaining four in the first half of next year. South Korean officials welcomed the move that came amid growing tension between the North and the United States and a stalemate in inter-Korean ties. ..//.."North Korea appears to try to prove that it is not a country sponsoring terrorism," a South Korean Foreign Ministry official said. "Its willingness to join the global efforts against terrorism could have positive effects on Pyongyang-Washington ties," he said. ..//..North Korean Foreign Minister Paek also told the EU delegation that Pyongyang is willing to talk with the United States if Washington abjures its "hostile" position. Paek also said that the South should lift its heightened security alert if Seoul wants the stalled inter-Korean ties to move forward, according to the Seoul official.

Source Korea Herald, 11 December 2001

Next Target Pyongyang?

..//.. President Bush recently caused a stir, when he spoke of Iraq and North Korea in one breath, warning both ``rogue states,'' they would have to bear the consequences for producing weapons of mass destruction. ..//..A few days earlier, U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had termed North Korea a ``very real'' threat to the United States…//.. the State Department hastened to clarify, that the tough talk had in fact a more limited focus. ..//.. This episode demonstrates once more, how difficult it is for the State Department to iron out un-diplomatic statements from the White House. It is not the first time that America's chief executive and diplomats speak with different tongues regarding North Korea. ..//..This does not mean that the U.S. armed forces are not prepared for war on the Korean peninsula. Even a military amateur knows, that this is exactly what some 40 000 American soldiers stationed in the South are practicing for..//..the Pentagon's hasty efforts to develop powerful new earth penetrating weapons..//..``Long before we learned about bin Laden's caves, there were North Korea's caves,'' a high- ranking former U.S. military official is quoted as saying. ..//.. Arguably, the most crucial factor in American military planning regarding North Korea is South Korea. Seoul has left no doubt, that it is not willing to participate in military adventures against the North: ``There will be no U.S. initiated war against the North, as South Korea and the United States are coordinating their North Korea policies,'' South Korea's Defence Minister said ..//.. ``We both know that if war breaks out, everything will be gone.''

Source: Ronald Meinardus, Korea Times, 7 December 2001

NZ – DPRK Relations

New Zealand’s first Ambassador to North Korea

New Zealand Ambassador to South Korea Roy Ferguson has been cross-accredited to the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK), presenting his credentials in Pyongyang. This follows on from the establishment of diplomatic relations with the DPRK in March…//..“During his visit to Pyongyang Ambassador Ferguson discussed a wide range of issues relevant to New Zealand’s interests in the region. This included urging the North to continue working with the South by implementing the Joint Declaration made at last year’s summit. Mr Ferguson encouraged the North to recommence talks with the United States and join international efforts against terrorism. ..//..I am pleased the DPRK has agreed to continue dialogue on human rights issues. It was clear during the delegation’s visit that humanitarian needs are still considerable both in terms of food and development assistance. Currently there is little trade between New Zealand and the DPRK. However, in the long term North Korea’s electricity generation sector may offer some offshore opportunities. There is scope for more exchanges and positive engagement between New Zealand and the DPRK but this will depend on the pace of the North/South relations. Our overwhelming interest is to see North and South Korea move toward lasting peace on the Korean Peninsular,” Mr Goff said.

Source: Hon Phil Goff, Media Statement 23 November 2001

Presbyterian invitation to Pyongyang

The Presbyterian Church of NZ/Aotearoa has sent an invitation to the Korean Christian Federation for two representatives to visit NZ in September 2002. The NZ side will pay costs. An invitation has also been sent to Presbyterian churches in the Republic of Korea to participate in the same events.

The General Assembly passed the following resolutions in 2000:

THAT this Assembly transmit to the Presbyterian Churches of North and South Korea greetings in the name of Jesus Christ; declares this Church’s support for the peaceful reunification of Korea; and invites North and South Korean Church representatives to share their experience and faith with New Zealand Churches

THAT this general Assembly applaud and affirm the efforts of the Governments of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea as they seek to work without outside interference towards the reunification of their nation.