Commentary
This has been another exciting and significant period for the DPRK and the peninsula generally. There is continuing bad news on the aid front, but generally good news on the economic and foreign affairs one, with DPRK-US relations being the big imponderable.
The freeze on normalizing relations with the DPRK imposed by the Bush administration, partly as a reaction to the rapid improvement brought in by Clinton in his final year, shows signs of thawing. James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, is in Pyongyang as I write (5 October 2002) – the first visit in two years.. Talk of a thaw may well be premature – in talks with reporters in Seoul Kelly was much less optimistic about a breakthrough than South Korean officials – but the pressure on the United States from all sides to negotiate with Pyongyang has been growing since Bush came into office.
President Kim Dae-jung has continued to press Washington to negotiate and now he has been joined, very significantly, by Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi.
The latter’s visit to Pyongyang in September has been dominated in the popular press by the ‘abductees issue’, overshadowing the substantive question of normalisation of Japan-DPRK relations and the payment of reparations – variously predicted at US$5-10billion. The Koizumi visit, and the Pyongyang Declaration, is important not merely in itself, and its impact on bilateral relations, but also in the additional pressure it puts on Bush. Tokyo was the last piece to move into place; now every major country in the world (bar France) has a diplomatic relationship with the DPRK, or in the case of Japan, is on the verge. Odd man out, as is becoming increasingly common, is the United States. Another case of American exceptionalism? The reports after the Kelly visit may give clues but really so much hinges on US policy towards Iraq, which clearly dominates administration attention. The DPRK at the moment is a mere sideshow. When attention is turned back to Korea it will be much influenced by what has happened in the Middle East. A US invasion of Iraq does not presage an attack on the DPRK because of the considerable differences. The DPRK has virtually no oil, it has the ability to retaliate to an unknown degree, it has friends and allies in the region – China, Russia and now, to some extent Japan. Most of all it has the Republic of Korea.
What is more likely than any doomsday scenario is a continued reluctance of Washington to engage in meaningful negotiation towards normalising relations.
The best strategy for Pyongyang, as I have argued before, is to continue to improve relations with Seoul, and with the South Korean people and to develop economic linkages. There have been great achievements in that regard over the last couple of months – family reunions, the commencement of work to link the railway and road systems, the friendly North-South football mach (which resulted, diplomatically or otherwise in a 0-0 draw) and current participation the Asian Games in Pusan. This progress has been damped by partisan wrangling on Northern issues during the presidential election campaign.
Economic reform has continued apace, with the setting up of the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region. Establishing a special economic zone in Sinuiju, DPRK’s main gateway to China, has been on the cards for a long time. The appointment of the Dutch-Chinese tycoon Yang Bin as governor was another matter. Things have got off to a bad start, with Yang Bin being under investigation by Chinese tax authorities. Hopefully initial problems can be resolved and Sinuiju will grow fast. paced by Dandong on the Chinese side, and complemented by Kaesong on the border with ROK. With the two zones joining DPRK to the ROK, Chinese and global economies, and linked by an upgraded railway, reconnected with the south and providing transit from Pusan to China, Russia and Europe, the DPRK economy could be on the way to rehabilitation and rapid re-growth.
Tim Beal
Millions
of hungry north Koreans face food aid cut-off
BEIJING - A slump in donations for its emergency operation in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is forcing the United Nations World Food Programme to halt cereal distributions to three million hungry women, children and elderly people. An additional 1.5 million beneficiaries will be deprived of rations in the depths of winter unless substantial fresh pledges are made soon.
"Such across-the-board cutbacks would cause acute suffering on a massive scale", said Rick Corsino, WFP Country Director for the DPRK. "As we head into the harsh North Korean winter, those affected will find it very difficult to cope. The tragedy is that the people most at risk stand to bear the entire burden. They are already on the edge."
The initial WFP ration stoppages - now inevitable - will be felt by three million recipients in the relatively better-off western and southern provinces over the next two months. A further 1.5 million more destitute beneficiaries in the struggling, erstwhile industrial east are threatened by still avoidable cut-offs from the beginning of next year. ..//..
WFP- whose previous DPRK emergency operations were fully underwritten by donors - urgently needs more than 100,000 tonnes of cereals to cover its requirements for the remainder of 2002 and through January of next year.
"Even the most prompt of pledges would not translate into food in a hungry person's bowl for at least two months", Corsino said. "Yet if commitments were made now, they could prevent this crisis escalating dramatically. We urge donors to do their utmost to limit the damage." ..//..
Basic Law
of Sinuiju Special Administrative Region
PYONGYANG, September 20 (KCNA) -- The Sinuiju Special Administrative Region has come into being according to a decree of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly adopted the Basic Law of the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region on September 12, 2002. ..//..
The state endues the region with the legislative, executive and judicial power and shall keep the legal system of the region unchanged for 50 years.
The DPRK cabinet, state commissions, ministries and national institutions shall not interfere in the region’s affairs, and external affairs concerning the region shall be handled by the state.
The region shall develop external activities on its own responsibility within the limit approved by the state and can issue its own passports.
The land and natural resources of the region belong to the DPRK and the state allows the region to be turned into an international financial, trade, commercial, industrial, up-to-date science, amusement and tourist center.
The state shall give the region the rights to develop, use and manage the land and encourage the businesses in the region to hire manpower of the DPRK. ..//..
The state shall encourage investments in the region and provide an investment environment and conditions for economic activities favorable for businesses.
The DPRK shall encourage the region to properly pursue its cultural policies so as to enhance its residents’ creativity and meet their demand for cultural and emotional life, introduce up-to-date science and technology and actively develop new domains of science and technology.
The residents shall not be discriminated against irrespective of sex, country, nationality, race, language, property status, knowledge, political views and religious beliefs and foreigners without citizenship shall have the same rights and duties as the residents. ..//..
DPRK citizens of the region can become deputies to the legislative council and foreigners with the right to reside in the region can also hold the same post. ..//..
Trials in the region shall be undertaken by the court of the region and district courts. The court of the region is the supreme court. ..//..
Source: People’s Korea website
GE interested in North project
General Electric chairman Jeffrey R. Immelt said Tuesday that he would be interested in investing in North Korea's planned special administrative region in Sinuiju…//..
GE may invest in power plants, transport and medical equipment, the chairman said.
Blueprint for Sinuiju
Administrative Zone disclosed
A skyscraper in the background of Amnok River, a four-lane traffic way, magnificent bridge that links stretched all the way to China's Dandong region and large apartment complex - this is what North Korea aspires to see in its special administrative zone of Sinuiju within 50 years-time.
The miniature model of the future Sinuiju city which depicted of astounding changes in the future was disclosed Wednesday.
The piece of work reportedly completed by one of renowned architect in France last June based on the given blue print is now on display at exhibition room of Sinuiju governor Yang Bin's office. The sources has it was Chairman Km Jong-il that gave the final approval.
According to the miniature the North plans on dividing the administrative zone into several different parts. The central zone which is to stretch up to Amnok River Bridge 2.5 kilometers away will be occupied by several multistory buildings for financial institution and other commercial buildings just like ones in Shanghai or Pudong region in China. The northern part of the region will be occupied by industrial complex highlighted by IT centers, thermal power plants and many other factories. A big apartment complex would take place in Southern region for future residents. The upper reaches of Amnok River is expected to be the most exciting spot in the zone with exhibition centers, centers for international convention, casinos and other facilities for tourist like in Hong Kong or Macao. ..//..
The reports has it the next most likely candidate to be appointed a special economic zone is industrial city of Kaesong located north of demilitarized zone that divided the two Koreas. . South Korean officials from Hyundai has demanded the North to guarantee free business activity late last month which has not gone unheeded by North Korean authority.
Experts believe the place will share much of political and business privilege granted by Sinuiju region lately announced as special administrative district to be governed by Chinese-born tycoon Yang Bin late last month.
Source: JoongAng Ilbo 4 October 2002
We're
going to move heaven and earth!
"You mean Sinuiju? We're going to move heaven and earth to change that place, just like Shanghai!"
That was North Korean leader Chairman Kim Jong-il's reaction when asked if any area of North Korea could mirror the economic growth of China's special administrative regions during a tour to Shanghai last year. And now, at least according to Kim Yong-ha, 41, who sells Chinese vegetables on the China side of the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge that links Sinuiju to China's Dandong region, that's the general response of people in Sinuiju…//..
The city already has some 20 Chinese-North Korean joint ventures. The companies mostly are involved in making light industrial products such as soap and shoes using North Korean labor. ..//..
They also reportedly have great faith in Yang Bin, the Chinese-Dutch tycoon tapped to be the first administrator of the free-trade zone. "The businessmen in Sinuiju mostly believe Yang Bin will adopt the Chinese reform model and show great interest in capitalist ways," Ms. Kim, the peddler, said.
The city of Dandong is also in high spirits. ..//..
South Korean companies, especially mid-and small-sized companies producing light industrial products like textiles, shoes and cosmetics, were equally hopeful. ..//..
Source: JoongAng Ilbo 29 September 2002
Anticipated Economic Effects of
Normalized N.K.-Japan Relations
..//..
Activation of N.K-Japan Trade Taking advantage of the summit meeting, North Korea will apparently try to find ways to expand its trade with Japan, which is now seeing a steady decrease. ..//.. The reduced trade between N.K. and Japan may be attributed to the oppression of pro-N.K. businesses in Japan, owing to the recession of the Japanese economy and the investigation of pro-N.K. financial institutes, as well as the fall of North Korea's commission-based trade of electric appliances and apparel due to the country's poor logistics and competitiveness. ..//..
Economic Restoration Through Reparations
North Korea reportedly expects reparations (including credit and aid) estimated at $5-10 billion in case of normalization with Japan. Given North Korea's trade volume last year ($2.7 billion) and GDP ($15.7 billion), these reparations would be an enormous sum, compared to the small size of the country's economy. If the reparations are invested in the backward industrial infrastructure, including indirect social capital and manufacturing facilities, it will contribute much to increased industrial production of the country.
Trade Promotion Through Preferential
Tariffs
North Korea's export to Japan has been at a disadvantage, since it does not have any diplomatic relations with that country and thus cannot expect the most-favored-nation treatment given to most nations. For that reason, the price competitiveness of North Korean export to Japan has deteriorated, holding any increase in trade with the country in check. Most-favored-nation status, which is expected to be given to North Korea following normalization, will contribute to expanded trade by improving its price competitiveness.
Normalization of Economic Relations
With normalization of diplomatic ties with Japan, the US would be the only major country with no diplomatic ties to North Korea. ..//.. If it succeeds in establishing formal diplomatic relations with the US, various economic sanctions will be lifted, and it will have a chance to jump-start its economy via expanded trade and financial support from international organizations.
Source: KOTRA website
North
Korean cheering squad steals Asian Games show
PUSAN -- The residents of this southern port city can't take their eyes off the women of the North Korean cheering squad and their colorful hanbok, wooden clappers and traditional fans. The brass band, made up of women dressed in blue tunics, white mini-skirts and white Nike shoes, is also hard to miss.
Forget who leaves the 14th Asian Games with the most medals (probably China), the North is already a winner as far as the people of Pusan are concerned.
Many Pusan people (at least the men) praised the beauty of the cheering squad, repeating the old saying, "Namnam, Buknyeo," which means South Korean men tend to be more sculpted and handsome, while women in the North tend to be more beautiful. ..//..Their brilliant cheering fashion, the sophisticated manner and well-prepared routines, all these factors are likely to contribute to partially ease the image of locked-up society they have come from and add the spice to the coming games. Obviously the ladies will the new rising stars in Pusan and be chased by camera flashes from all kinds of press until they return to their ferry boat.
Source: JoongAng Ilbo 1 October 2002
North
Korea receives support like home team in South Korea
PUSAN, South Korea - Except for banners welcoming them on a rare visit across the border, the North Koreans could well have been the home team when they played their Asian Games soccer opener Saturday night.
The North has sent its own 300-member cheering section to the games. Thousands of South Koreans joined them in yelling encouragement as North Korea beat Hong Kong 2-1. Thundering cheers erupted from the 26,000-seat Changwon Stadium as North Korean forward Han Song Chol scored the match's first goal in the 59th minute and again when teammate Hong Yong Jo put in the match-winner in the 82nd minute.
"It's OK! It's OK!" the South Koreans shouted when Hong Kong scored the equalizer in the 66th minute.
The North Koreans waved red and blue pom-poms, and four cheerleaders in red T-shirts danced a traditional fan dance to a folk song played by their brass band in blue and white uniforms. Others waved their red and blue national flag with a large red star.
Sitting in the center section, surrounded by South Korean security officials, the North Koreans shouted "Go! Go! Our players, go! and shook wooden clappers throughout the match. The band played fast-beat tunes whenever the North advanced on the Hong Kong goal.
Except for a few dozen supporters for Hong Kong sitting in one corner, the rest of the stadium rooted for the North Koreans, waving the "unification flag" ?a white flag emblazoned with a sky-blue image of the Korean Peninsula.
"Korea team fighting!" chanted South Korean fans, some in red T-shirts with "Korea is one" written on them.
"We are not strangers! We are brothers!" read one large banner hung from the stands. Another said: "Welcome! Fellow countrymen from the North."
In appreciation, North Korean players bowed to South Korean fans in the stands after the match. ..//..
South Korean law bans public display of the North Korean flag. But the South Korean government eased the restriction for the Asian Games, allowing the North Koreans to fly their flag at stadiums and several other places.
The North's participation in the 14th Asian Games in Pusan came amid renewed efforts to bring peace and reconciliation on the divided Korean Peninsula. Last week, the two Koreas opened part of their heavily fortified border to reconnect rail and road links severed since the Korean War. Earlier this month, the two Koreas played their first friendly soccer match in 12 years. It ended in a goalless draw.
Source: JoongAng Ilbo 29 September 2002
