Commentary

The key question concerning the Korean peninsula at the moment is whether the Bush administration will enter into meaningful, bilateral negotiations with Pyongyang. Some say those negotiations have, in fact, begun. Press reports claim that secret talks took place in Berlin in February and more are scheduled for March. Whether these reports are true, and if they are, what will come of them, is unclear. Much will depend on the US invasion of Iraq. If that goes badly for the Americans they are unlikely to take on a more formidable foe. If they have initial success, on the lines of the invasion of Afghanistan, they might be tempted to try to repeat that in Korea. In either case it seems as if the attack on Iraq will strengthen DPRK resolve. The predicament of the Iraqis destroying missiles on the eve of invasion will not be lost on military planners in Pyongyang.

The Bush administration seems to have painted itself into a corner over Korea. Bush wants to bring about the collapse of the DPRK but that brings him into conflict with the ROK. It is no secret that Bush wanted to undo much of Clinton’s foreign policy, and that included the Agreed Framework (AF). James Kelly came back from Pyongyang last October claiming that the Koreans had ‘admitted to’ a recently discovered enriched uranium programme that infringed the Agreed Framework. Actually the allegations about enriched uranium had been around for some time and Republican Congressman Benjamin Gilman brought it up in 1999, complaining that it did not violate the AF -something the Republicans seem to have since forgotten. Whether the Koreans did admit and then recanted or whether Kelly either misunderstood or misrepresented, is not known. But official DPRK statements are quite clear – they do not have nuclear weapons and do not, at this stage, intend to produce them. However, the strategic ambiguity – the potential to weaponize even if this is not declared remains and in some respects is more important than the reality. It is the DPRK’s main negotiating card.

Bush’s problem is that having torn up the AF he has nothing to put in its place, and he has come under attack from various parts of the political spectrum in the United States for that. He probably wants to move forward and destroy the DPRK but the barriers are perhaps insurmountable It may be that he was banking on a conservative win in the ROK election but it is unlikely that Seoul, under any civilian government, would willing countenance US military action against Pyongyang. There is fear of retaliation – a full-fledge war on the Korean peninsula, and beyond, would cause innumerable causalities and devastation.

Roh Moo-hyun won the election and this has exacerbated Bush’s dilemma. Roh, like Kim Dae-jung before him, is adamantly opposed to anything that will produce a collapse of the DPRK because he realises this would cause incalculable damage to the ROK as well. Roh, so far, is taking a stronger line than his predecessor, bolstered by support especially from China and Russia. They have all called for Washington to enter into direct, bilateral negotiations with Pyongyang. Many in the United States itself have echoed this – the New York Times on 4 March castigated Bush’s ‘stalled diplomacy’ and said ‘The United States is in a bind with North Korea..//... the need to begin direct negotiations with the North is increasingly urgent.’ Others have called on the Unites States to sign a formal non-aggression treaty, a key demand of the DPRK.

Whilst the DPRK is still in a parlous economic state there are some signs of progress and we touch on developments in animation and telecommunications. Economic and political links with the South continue. The latest UNICEF survey shows that child malnutrition is lessening but this is under threat by a shortfall in aid.

Above all hangs the crisis with the United States. Only Bush has the power to resolve that, but that would involve relinquishing the aim of destroying the DPRK. He is under increasing pressure to negotiate. But whether he will really seek a solution remains to be seen.

Tim Beal

Bush under pressure to negotiate

Gilman releases North Korea report

Washington, 3 November 1999

US Representative Benjamin A. Gilman, Chairman of the House International Relations Committee, released a congressional report today on DPRK threat to the US and it allies.://..

First, the American people need to know that there is significant evidence that North Korea is continuing its activities to develop nuclear weapons.

Remarkably, North Korea's efforts to acquire uranium technologies, that is, a second path to nuclear weapons, and their efforts to weaponize their nuclear material do not violate the 1994 Agreed Framework. That is because the Clinton Administration did not succeed in negotiating a deal with North Korea that would ban such efforts. It is inexplicable and inexcusable.

Source: Press release by International Relations Committee [US Congress] Chairman Representative Benjamin Gilman (Republican-New York)

Armitage in a tizzy

And much to our surprise, on the second day of his talks, the first vice foreign minister came back and not only acknowledged that there was this program, but he said that we have even more developed weapons, which threw us into a bit of a tizzy. We didn't understand what those weapons might be.

We have subsequently learned from foreign envoys who have gone to Pyongyang and talked to the North Koreans about that, that what they're referring to is the soul and the special affection of the Korean people for the army-first policy, united behind the direction of Kim Jong Il. So it just means the will of the people is united to reject any sort of aggression

Source: Richard Armitage testimony to U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on WMD developments on the Korean peninsula, 4 February, 2003

Conclusion of non-aggression treaty between DPRK and U.S. called for

..//..Inter-Korean relations and the DPRK's relations with Russia, China and Japan have entered a new important phase and bold measures have been taken to reconnect inter-Korean railroads which have remained cut for over half a century, settle the past with Japan and do away with the leftovers of the last century.

The DPRK has taken a series of new steps in economic management and adopted one measure after another to reenergize the economy, including the establishment of a special economic region..//..

It was against this backdrop that the DPRK recently received a special envoy of the U.S. President in the hope that this might help fundamentally solve the hostile relations with the U.S. and settle outstanding issues on an equal footing. ..//..

Producing no evidence, he asserted that the DPRK has been actively engaged in the enriched uranium program in pursuit of possessing nuclear weapons in violation of the DPRK-U.S. agreed framework. ..//..

The U.S. attitude was so unilateral and high-handed that the DPRK was stunned by it…//..

The DPRK-U.S. agreed framework was adopted in October 1994, ..//.. The U.S. has, in the final analysis, observed none of the four articles of the framework.

..//.. the Bush administration listed the DPRK as part of the "axis of evil" and a target of the U.S. preemptive nuclear strikes. This was a clear declaration of a war against the DPRK as it totally nullified the DPRK-U.S. joint statement and agreed framework.

In the long run, the Bush administration has adopted it as its policy to make a preemptive nuclear strike at the DPRK. Such moves, a gross violation of the basic spirit of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, reduced the inter-Korean joint declaration on denuclearization to a dead document. ..//..

That was why the DPRK made itself very clear to the special envoy of the U.S. President that the DPRK was entitled to possess not only nuclear weapon but any type of weapon more powerful than that so as to defend its sovereignty and right to existence from the ever-growing nuclear threat by the U.S. ..//..

Nevertheless, the DPRK, with greatest magnanimity, clarified that it was ready to seek a negotiated settlement of this issue on the following three conditions: firstly, if the U.S. recognizes the DPRK's sovereignty, secondly, if it assures the DPRK of nonaggression and thirdly, if the U.S. does not hinder the economic development of the DPRK. ..//..

The position of the DPRK is invariable. The DPRK considers that it is a reasonable and realistic solution to the nuclear issue to conclude a nonaggression treaty between the DPRK and the U.S. if the grave situation of the Korean Peninsula is to be bridged over.

If the U.S. legally assures the DPRK of nonaggression, including the nonuse of nuclear weapons against it by concluding such treaty, the DPRK will be ready to clear the former of its security concerns.

Source: KCNA, Pyongyang, 25 October 2002

Bush Administration Wants to See NK Collapse: CSIS

A U.S. expert on Korean affairs said some Bush administration officials want to see North Korea, which U.S. President George W. Bush branded a member of an ``axis of evil'' seeking weapons of mass destruction, to collapse.

``It's very obvious that there are probably a number of Americans in the Bush administration who want North Korea to collapse,'' Joel Wit, a senior fellow of Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a recent interview with The Korea Times in Seoul. ``That has been one option and has been considered in the U.S. government.''

Wit said the U.S. intention to seek the disintegration of the reclusive regime partly explains why North Korea wants security guarantees from the U.S., noting however that those kind of guarantees would not be sufficient.

North Korea has demanded a guarantee from the U.S. that it will not to invade the North in exchange for scrapping its nuclear weapons program.

Source: Korea Times 26 January 2003

U.S. and South Korea diverging on North

..//..In many ways, regional experts say, the situation in South Korea is even more worrisome than the apparent policy disarray in Washington.

Both South Korea's outgoing president, Kim Dae Jung, and its newly elected leader, Roh Moo Hyun, are so firmly committed to engagement with North Korea that any coercive or military measures by Washington aimed at terminating Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programs could destroy the 50-year-old alliance between the United States and South Korea instead…//..

Meanwhile, the visit to Washington last week of a high-level delegation composed of members of Roh's transition team was widely described as a near disaster. ..//.. At a private Washington dinner for the transition team, several American participants said mouths dropped when a senior South Korean envoy said that, if it had to choose, the incoming government would prefer that North Korea had nuclear weapons to seeing North Korea collapse.

Roh's stated policy is that nuclear weapons in North Korea would be intolerable, but senior aides reinforced the message that Seoul would oppose any military action against Pyongyang, and would even resist sanctions. ..//..

“The impression I got is that for Roh and his generation, the ultimate goal is to reunite their country and get us off the Peninsula."

Source: International Herald Tribune 8 February 2003

Roh Moo-Hyun: “Peace and Prosperity’

..//.. In particular, global concern is rising over the North Korean nuclear issue. This is the time to make a determined effort to safeguard peace and have it firmly rooted on the peninsula. ..//..

......a dream of seeing a regional community of peace and co prosperity in Northeast Asia like the European Union. The Age of Northeast Asia will then finally come to full fruition ..//..

.....we have made great efforts to promote peace in the land and the results have been remarkable. Exchanges of people and merchandise between the two Koreas are taking place routinely, almost on a daily basis. Inter-Korean travel routes are open on land and sea and in the air. In this process, however, we have come to learn that we need to pursue North Korea policies based on a broader national consensus ..//..

I have several principles that I plan to adhere to in pushing the "policy for peace and prosperity" on the Korean Peninsula. First, I will try to resolve all pending issues through dialogue. Second, I will give priority to building mutual trust and upholding reciprocity. Third, I will seek active international cooperation on the premise that South and North Korea are the two main actors in inter-Korean relations. And fourth, I will enhance transparency, expand citizen participation, and secure bipartisan support. I will implement my policy for peace and prosperity with the support of the general public. ..//..

I would like to emphasize again that the North Korean nuclear issue should be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

Source: Inaugural speech of President Roh Moo-hyun, 25 February 2003

Child malnutrition falls

Malnutrition rates among children in the (DPRK) have improved considerably over the past four years, according to a new survey, but the UN agencies that announced the findings today said the gains could be lost if international support for humanitarian assistance to the country continues to slacken.

n The proportion of children underweight (weight-for-age) has fallen from 61 percent in 1998 to 21 percent in 2002

n Wasting, or acute malnutrition (weight-for-height), has fallen from 16 percent to 9 percent

n Stunting, or chronic malnutrition (height-for-age), has dropped from 62 percent to 42 percent.

..//.."The results are very encouraging and our assistance is clearly reaching the people intended with positive effect," said Kenzo Oshima, Under Secretary-General of the United Nations for Humanitarian Affairs.

Source: UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Pyongyang Bulletin 2003#1

NK Making Mark in Animation

North Korea has been winning the heart of animators across the world with its competitive quality and low production costs.

The U.S. biweekly Forbes recently reported North Korean animation producer, SEK Studio, has been doing business with French and other European production companies for the last few years…//..

..SEK is one of the largest animation studios in the world, quoting Dominique Boischot, president of Paris-based film production company Les Films de la Perrine.

The French businessman says he likes to work with SEK because it can handle large volumes of coloring assignments efficiently without comprising quality. ..//..

. "In terms of the quality of work, it's one of the best in the world." ..//..

.. the North has produced a few animations in cooperation with some South Korean animators to ship out to foreign markets, mainly Europe. ``..//..

``However, their production skill is now as good as South Korea's,'' Lee said. South Korea is one of powerhouses in animation production…//..

The Chosun Sinho, pro-North Korea newspaper based in Japan, also reported SEK Korea ``is now winning wide popularity in the world.''

``The company has presented such wonderful animation films as ``Simba,'' ``King Lion,'' ``Les Miserables,'' ``Adventures of Pif and Hercules and Pocahontas'' to the world,'' it said.

It quoted the president of the Italian Mondo TV as saying ``I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw the artistic skills of the painters. Cartoon films they produced were all wonders.''

``Our company, staffed with highly skilled creators and equipped with high performance computers, is capable of responding to any orders,'' said Kim Thae Hong, chief of Studio No. 3. in SEK Korea, according to the newspaper.

Source: Korea Times 7 March 2003

DPRK Spreading Computer Networks

Anybody in the DPRK can receive cellular phone service. ..//..

Recently, the modernization of communications services is spreading rapidly in the DPRK.

A cellular phone service started in Pyongyang and Rason last November. ..//... As investments in plants and equipment are still in its early stage, and as the sign-up fee and the charge for a telephone call are expensive, subscribers now number about 3000.

"From now on, we are going to upgrade equipment and to expand our equipment supply capacity so as to meet the growing demand. Then, it will be possible to lower the rate. We are going to farther spread communications networks and a plan is afoot to extend the cellular phone service to all the provincial seats of government and main highways," Hwang Chol Pung, president of the Korea Communications Company said. The company has various service plans for cellular phones including those for a prepaid system, homepage and E-mail services connected to computer websites.

As fixed telephones has been automatized, the DPRK is going to focus investments and technical development on mobile phones.

The cellular phone in the DPRK follows the "GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) system" which is a mainstream in Europe. There is a plan to introduce the "CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) system" which is used in South Korea. This is in view of future reunification of Korea.

In the DPRK, a nationwide communications network by optical fiber cable was completed on October 10, 2000, in time for the 55th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea. The backbone is of a 2.5GB capacity between the center and each province. Based on this, the construction of computer networks is being carried forward step by step.

Databases such as of the Central Information Company of Science and Technology, the invention offices of scientific academies and the People's Study Grand Palace began providing their information services using computer networks several years ago…//...

At present, the sign-up fee is free in Pyongyang to promote the spread of computer networks…//..

Now, the computer network is domestic, that is, the Intranet, not the Internet. "However, at present, there is a plan for a international E-mail exchange service," Hwan said.

The company plans to register the DPRK domain with NIC (Network Information Center) as ".kp". It is preparing to provide the service within this year. ..//..

Source: Peoples Korea March 2003