Vol 1, No 4 December 1999
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1. OVERVIEW
In spite of efforts by the country to redress chronic food problems through intensive planning and management of agriculture, given the scale of the problem and its root causes, future food supply prospects are almost entirely contingent on international food and rehabilitation assistance, economic growth and the ability of the country to integrate itself into the global economy. Failing these requisites, food availability and health and nutritional standards will continue to fall markedly. Already, the last four years have witnessed a significant decline in living standards, as per caput availability of food has shrunk, whilst serious health problems have increased due to lack of resources, drugs and essential supplies. A vicious circle of poor nutrition compounding poor health and vice versa has, therefore, become deeply entrenched. The full extent of the problem and the inter-linkages is not known as a comprehensive nutritional survey is yet to be undertaken. However, an indicative nutritional survey by WFP, UNICEF and ECHO in 1998, indicated an acute malnutrition rate of 16 percent, amongst children six months to 7 years, which represents one of the highest rates of wasting in the world.
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Source: Food and Agricultural Organisation and World Food Programme. Full text available at
http://WWW.FAO.ORG/GIEWS/english/alertes/1999/SRKORN99.htm
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FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DPRK
8 November 1999
HIGHLIGHTS
Compared to 1995,1996 and 1997, when floods and drought caused extensive damage to food production, 1998 and 1999 saw relative stability. However, production trends during these years, indicate that DPR Korea has entered an era of relatively low input low output agriculture. Even in the absence of major natural hazards, therefore, domestic food production will remain well below minimum needs due to serious lack of investment and essential inputs into agriculture. Despite substantial improvement in 1999, fertilizer availability remains well below requirements. Fuel and energy for critical mechanised operations are in very short supply, whilst large numbers of tractors and machines are inoperable due to lack of spare parts and replacement. These, in turn, are due to serious economic contraction and critical shortage of foreign exchange for necessary purchases of inputs and food. Shortage of capital has resulted in severely reduced land and labour productivity, whilst more and more operations are becoming labour intensive. Overall, therefore, under prevailing constraints, the country has serious problems of maintaining agricultural production and food supply.
Based on revised population figures provided by the Government, grain demand for food and other utilization needs for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.76 million tonnes. This leaves a deficit of around 1.29 million tonnes, of which the Government is expected to import 300 000 tonnes commercially, with a further 370 000 tonnes covered by pipeline food aid imports. Taking these into account, the uncovered import requirement, therefore, is estimated at 623 000 tonnes, with which the country still needs assistance. In addition, although sizeable contributions were made over the last year to rehabilitate agriculture, to ensure food security, much more is needed.
Notwithstanding the immense hardship endured by the population and their resilience in coping with acute food shortages over the last four years, there is little doubt that widespread starvation has only be averted by concerted national efforts and the unprecedented volume of humanitarian food assistance provided by the international community to date. The mission contends, however, that DPR Korea's vulnerability to large scale famine is, perhaps, much higher than other food-insecure countries, in view of the obstacles and constraints it faces. The country no longer has the potential to maintain important strategic food stocks for emergencies, through imports or production, and coping mechanisms at various levels are becoming increasingly strained and unsustainable. Any future crop failure, in a country relying mainly on one harvest per year, can potentially have disastrous effects on a scale not yet seen. It is imperative, therefore, that the country rebuild strategic emergency stocks, for which international assistance would be indispensable. There are signs that the economic sanctions on DPR Korea, by leading industrialised countries may be relaxed. This would lead to recovery in the economy and rehabilitation in agriculture and could inevitably have a significant and positive impact on sustainable food security.
WFP PROPOSES NEW REHABILITATION PROGRAMME
While emergency assistance must continue in order to assist the people of DPRK, WFP and its partners, working closely with the Flood Disaster Rehabilitation Committee (FDRC), have also embarked on a programme developed to implement a longer-term vision for assistance programmes in DPRK, paving the way for recovery. A 92,000-ton programme to be implemented over two years, protracted relief and recovery operation (PRRO) 6157.00 will run concurrently with EMOP 5959.01. However, WFP hopes that this new initiative will provide the vehicle for innovation in agricultural rehabilitation activities with a focus on disaster mitigation. Through pilot activities comprised in the PRRO, WFP will work directly with cooperatives for the first time. This grass-roots involvement will promote a greater decision-making role for cooperatives and encourage greater involvement with DPRK line ministries. This PRRO was formulated with inputs from a joint FAO/WFP mission (28 April-19 May 1999). FAO will also provide technical support for its implementation. Of particular note, WFP has worked closely with FDRC in finalizing this PRRO submission, and both are anticipating its joint implementation in 2000-2001
Source: Available as a pdf file from WFP website
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Berlin talks produce progress on missiles, sanctions
US-DPRK PRESS STATEMENT
September 12, 1999, Berlin
US and DPRK delegations, headed by Ambassador Charles Kartman and Vice Minister Kim Gye Gwan, respectively, met in Berlin from 7-12 September 1999 to discuss bilateral relations and other issues of mutual concern. The discussions, a continuation of high-level talks the two sides have held on a regular basis, took place in a constructive and businesslike atmosphere.
The two sides held productive discussions on pending issues, including the sanctions and missile issues. Each side came to a deeper understanding of the other's concerns and each acknowledged the need to continue taking steps that address these concerns.
The two sides agreed to continue these efforts and agreed that, in the interim, each would endeavor to preserve a positive atmosphere conducive to improved bilateral relations and to peace and security in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.
Sources:
United States Information Agency Washington File website [filename="99091301*GWE"]
How to locate files on the Washington File
People's Korea website
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PERRY: REPORT AND TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS
Dr Perry submitted a classified report to the President and congress in September and an unclassified version was released in October. In addition, Perry gave testimony before Congress. Short extracts from both are given here; the full texts are available online.
Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations
Unclassified Report by Dr. William J. Perry, U.S. North Korea Policy Coordinator and Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State
Washington, DC, October 12, 1999
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On this path the United States and its allies would, in a step-by-step and reciprocal fashion, move to reduce pressures on the DPRK that it perceives as threatening. The reduction of perceived threat would in turn give the DPRK regime the confidence that it could coexist peacefully with us and its neighbors and pursue its own economic and social development. If the DPRK moved to eliminate its nuclear and long-range missile threats, the United States would normalize relations with the DPRK, relax sanctions that have long constrained trade with the DPRK and take other positive steps that would provide opportunities for the DPRK.
If the DPRK were prepared to move down this path, the ROK and Japan have indicated that they would also be prepared, in coordinated but parallel tracks, to improve relations with the DPRK.
Source: US State Department
TESTIMONY
....., I believe the step each side has taken can start a process to remove the threat of armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. And that with this threat removed, a better environment will be created which will make all other problems easier to resolve, including bilateral issues between the ROK and DPRK, and bilateral issues between Japan and North Korea.
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Finally, I wish to point out that a confluence of events this past year has opened what my policy review team and I strongly feel is a unique window of opportunity for the U.S. with respect to North Korea. There is a clear and common understanding among Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington on how to deal with Pyongyang. The PRC's strategic goals -- especially on the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons and related missile delivery systems -- overlap with those of the U.S. Pyongyang appears committed to the Agreed Framework and for the time being is convinced of the value of improving relations with the U.S. The year 1999 may represent, historically, one of our best opportunities for some time to come, to begin a path to normalization, which after decades of insecurity, will finally lead to a Korean Peninsula which is secure, stable, and prosperous.
Source: US State Department
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SOUTH KOREAN REACTION - 'THE PERRY REPORT: A SCENARIO FOR A COLLISION COURSE?'
Hwal-Woong Lee
Korea 2000
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My observation is that, given its population, economy and military strength, North Korea has no motivation to provoke a military confrontation with the U.S., the only super-power of the world. They may, therefore, want to keep a dialogue with the U.S. going and try to take whatever is obtainable from the U.S. so long as they are not inexorably pressed for total renunciation of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) programs. Once pressed for that, however, Pyongyang will not be able to go along any further, especially under the circumstances where U.S. forces are there in South Korea pointing guns at them. This will oblige the U.S. to take what Perry calls the second path steps to contain what it considers a threat from the North, an implying the use of force.
If Washington is serious about making peace with Pyongyang, it should recognize that the presence of U.S. forces in South Korea is a sheer threat to the North's security and, therefore, it should eliminate, not just reduce, this threat. Otherwise, North Korea simply cannot give up its WMD programs. The only practical way of inducing the North's agreement to total renunciation of its WMD programs will, therefore, be to barter it for American consent to a phased withdrawal of its forces from the South. Actual implementation of such deal should of course be preceded by a political arrangement for general arms reductions and non-aggression pledges by the parties concerned.
In the absence of these crucial elements, the Perry Report, I am afraid, is nothing more than a scenario for collision course.
[former Foreign Service Officer for the ROK Government (56-71) and ROK Consul in New York (59-61) and in Los Angeles (68-71). He has been writing articles and letters on Korean problems in various newspapers and magazines since 1984, and has served as President of the Korea Reunification Forum (94-95) and a Fellow at Korea-2000, an LA based research council on Korean reunification (97-99). He is currently working on his third book, to be entitled "For a Reunification where no one loses."
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MURAYAMA TO LEAD JAPANESE DELEGATION TO DPRK
A suprapartisan group of Diet members headed by former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama of the Social Democratic Party is scheduled to begin a three-day mission in North Korea from Dec. 1. The purpose of the visit is to reopen bilateral dialogue between Tokyo and Pyongyang.
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North Korea announced in September that it would suspend test-firing of another ballistic missile while its bilateral talks with the United States are ongoing, while Washington has committed to easing economic sanctions against Pyongyang.
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The Japanese government's strategy apparently is to use the Murayama mission to gather clues on what line of negotiation it should pursue in normalization talks that have been shelved since 1992.
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, 24 November 1999
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EASED U.S. SANCTION MAKES NORTH KOREA CONFIDENT: JAPANESE PROFESSOR
.........Yasuhiko Yoshida, a professor of international relations at Saitama University, who made his fifth DPRK visit from Sep. 25 to 30, with his students this time.
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In the evening we had dinner with Song Il Ho, a high-ranking official at the DPRK's Foreign Ministry. Mr. Song, who is known to be open-minded and very well informed of Japanese affairs, struck up conversation saying, "The DPRK-US diplomatic normalization will be realized under Clinton's presidency. It will be too late for the Tokyo government to make haste after that."
"Our policy toward the Japanese government remains unchanged as we made clear in the August 10 government announcement. We will wait and see what political course the Japanese government will take. It is good for the Japanese government to have decided to send a supra-partisan goodwill mission to our country that I hear will be led by former Prime Minister Murayama. But the mission would be a failure should they turn out to be empty-handed."
Source: People's Korea website
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Dr Tim Beal 19 Devon Street, Kelburn Wellington, NZ Tel: +64 4 463 5080 (day) +64 4 934 5133 (evening) Fax: +64 4 934 5134 Email: Tim.Beal@vuw.ac.nz or Tim.Beal@apri.ac.nz |
Rev Don Borrie 7 Thornley St Titahi Bay Porirua, NZ Tel/fax: +64 4 236 6422 |
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